Uncertainty

The Trump Administration’s economic policy has in a matter of weeks pushed the Economic Policy Uncertainty Index to record highs:

Alex Tabarrok asserts that the main culprit for this uncertainty is tariffs.

The latest ISM survey contains numerous quotes from manufacturers expressing concerns about tariffs. The Fed’s latest beige book, which includes anecdotes and commentary from across the country, showed mentions of uncertainty and tariffs more than doubling since January.

A major problem with uncertainty is that it discourages private investment. In addition to scorning tariffs as bad economics, Tabarrok argues that even if Trump settles on a final tariffs policy, there’s still uncertainty about the counterresponse of other countries.

GDP growth forecasts have been trending downward, with the Atlanta Fed’s GDPnow estimate providing an extreme example:

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.