Talking Turkey

Last week’s inflation report brought welcome news, as headline inflation in October was flat over the past month and up 3.2% from a year ago. Both of these numbers were below economist expectations of 0.1% and 3.3%. Core inflation, which excludes more volatile food and energy prices, increased 0.2% over the past month and 4% over the past year, again below expectations. This report continued a trend of moderating inflation:

Markets have taken notice well, as they now assign a 0% chance for the Fed to raise rates in December, and just a 2% chance of a 25bp rate hike in January. Long-term treasury yields have fallen, with both the 10-year and 30-year US Treasury yield dropping about 20bp over the past week (though both numbers are still up about 70bp for the year). It appears likely that the Fed hiking cycle has come to an end, though the critical question remains as to the start date and pace of any rate cuts in 2024.

On a lighter note, turkey prices have given us something to be thankful for, as the average cost of a turkey dinner for 10 people is down 4.5% over the past year, from a record $64.05 to $61.17. The average cost of a 16-pound turkey is $27.35, down 5.6% from last year. If you’re so inclined, you can find further savings in Pittsburgh, as Giant Eagle is advertising turkeys for 99 cents a pound. Whatever your dining plans are, have a Happy Thanksgiving, and please take the time to appreciate friends and family in 2023, as at this time next year half the country may still be seething about the results of next year’s Presidential election.

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JMS Capital Group Wealth Services LLC

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.