Weekly Market Commentary
Showing remarkable resilience. Throughout the first half of 2023, the U.S. economy and financial markets proved to be resilient – and so did investors.
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Jul 3 -
Jun 26OPEC’s Murky Future
OPEC has functioned as a frequently successful oil cartel over the past 50 years, but as Noah Smith argues, it is facing increasing pressure from two fronts.
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Jun 20Inflation Update
Headline inflation continues to fall, in large part due to plummeting energy prices.
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Jun 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Rebalancing ahead! There is one decision all investors should make: how to allocate the money they’re investing.
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Jun 12A Manufacturing Boomlet
Part of the intent behind the Chips and Science Act and the Inflation Reduction Act, each passed by Congress last summer...
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Jun 12
Weekly Market Commentary
Leaping over the wall of worry. The “wall of worry” is an obstacle – or set of obstacles – that investors face.
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Jun 5A Case for Corporate Bonds
AllianceBernstein’s Tiffanie Wong and Timothy Kurpis make the case for investment-grade corporate bonds.
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Jun 5
Weekly Market Commentary
As Gomer Pyle used to say, “Surprise, surprise, surprise!” Gomer Pyle USMC was a popular American sitcom in the 1960s
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May 31EVs are Taking Over
Noah Smith documents the massive increase in electric vehicle (EV) sales and compellingly argues that the potential hurdles to a continued surge are likely to be cleared.
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May 30
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s a three-ring circus! For centuries people have embraced the circus. Enjoying the sticky fluff of cotton candy while elephants, clowns and trapeze artists perform in the ...
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May 22
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors aren’t happy, but stocks are up. If you ever participated in a fantasy football league, you may have experienced a run on a position during your ...
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May 15
Weekly Market Commentary
Brace yourself! The debt ceiling standoff continues. Consumers aren’t optimistic. The Consumer Sentiment Index fell to a six-month low in May, dropping 9.1 percent month-to-month.
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May 8
Weekly Market Commentary
The labor market just keeps growing and growing. Last week, the April employment report for the United States arrived.
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May 1A Macro Update
The Fed meets again this week, and is expected to issue another 25bp hike to the federal funds rate.
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May 1
Weekly Market Commentary
Get real! Despite more than a year of aggressive Federal Reserve rate increases, the United States economy is still growing, albeit more slowly.
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Apr 25Quarterly Market Commentary 2023
Markets steamed ahead in the first month of 2023, continuing the recovery that began in the 4th quarter of last year. Unfortunately, the rebound then stalled amidst stubborn inflation ...
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Apr 24Millennials are Making Money
There’s been an ongoing stereotype that Millennials (Americans born in the 80s and 90s) are in trouble, highly educated but underpaid, beset by student debt, and having ...
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Apr 24
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s earnings season – the time when publicly traded companies report on how profitable they were during the first quarter of 2023. So far, reports suggest that companies listed ...
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Apr 17Debt Ceiling Baby Steps
The US is expected to hit its debt ceiling sometime this summer, and so far the Biden administration and the Republican House are nowhere near an agreement to ...
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Apr 17Weekly Market Commentary
Keep your eye on the big picture. Last week, there was nothing too surprising in economic and financial news.
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Apr 10A 2nd Quarter Projection
AllianceBernstein has issued its second quarter macroeconomic forecast for 2023.
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Apr 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Ambiguous images. Some illustrations are optical illusions. When two people view the picture, they may see completely different images.
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Apr 4Labor and Inflation: From Top to Bottom
Goldman Sachs’s Maria Vassalou and Amy Yihan Zhou have an interesting breakdown of inflation and labor markets.
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Apr 3
Weekly Market Commentary
Perhaps we should call this a pushmi-pullyu market. The first quarter of 2023 brought Dr. Dolittle’s pushmi-pullyu – the rarest animal of all – to mind.
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Mar 27
Weekly Market Commentary
What’s your jam? When you think of fun, are you running an Arctic marathon? Biking to your favorite burger place?
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Mar 20The Fed’s Path
Two weeks ago, Jerome Powell provided a clear signal that rates could go and stay higher than previously anticipated.
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Mar 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Unknowns and uncertainty. Financial markets were volatile last week as investors parsed the risks around bank closures...
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Mar 15A Look Inside the Collapse of the Silicon Valley Bank
Silicon Valley Bank has collapsed. How did this happen? What are the possible consequences for its customers, other banks, and the larger financial system?
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Mar 13
Weekly Market Commentary
Thrown for a loop. Early last week, Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell told Congress the Fed is committed to bringing inflation down to 2 percent.
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Mar 6Remembrance of Bears Past
Barry Ritholtz shows one of his favorite charts that traces out the paths of historical bear markets:
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Mar 6
Weekly Market Commentary
Sibling discord. Stocks and bonds are two of the better-known asset classes in the family of potential investments.
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Feb 27Supply Chains and Inflation
Bloomberg’s Laura Curtis traces the path of supply chains over recent years and assesses their place in the inflation run-up.
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Feb 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Is it good news or bad news? The answer depends on your perspective. Last week, we learned that:
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Feb 20A View of the Markets
Domestic and international markets have had a strong beginning to 2023, with the S&P 500 rising over 6% in January, and developed international and emerging markets each gaining about 8% ...
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Feb 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Brace for a bumpy ride. There were some unwelcome surprises in last week’s economic data that caused markets to reassess expectations for 2023.
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Feb 13Markets and the Debt Ceiling
Image Source: http://www.fridaynewsletter.com. Last month the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures”
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Feb 13
Weekly Market Commentary
This time may be different...or it may not be. There has been a lot of speculation about how the Federal Reserve’s policies will affect the United ...
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Feb 6
Weekly Market Commentary
What do Samuel Clemens (a.k.a. Mark Twain) and the current economic expansion have in common?
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Jan 30Central Banks and Interest Rates
When the Fed meets this week, it is expected to implement yet another rate hike, but only by a quarter of a percentage point.
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Jan 30
Weekly Market Commentary
The vicious cycle of inflation. Last week, we learned that pay increases at central banks in many parts of the world won’t keep pace with inflation.
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Jan 30Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways, 2022 was an ugly year for markets, but the 4th quarter at least provided a measure of relief that recovered losses to an extent.
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Jan 23
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets “It’s hard to be a contrarian for very long these days because the consensus seems to change so quickly
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Jan 23The Debt Ceiling
Last week the US hit the debt limit set by Congress, and the federal government began “extraordinary measures
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Jan 17And Now for Something ‘Concretely’ Different
Have you ever wondered how numerous Roman structures have lasted for centuries?
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Jan 17Weekly Market Commentary
Bullish or bearish? After last year’s geopolitical turmoil, economic malaise, and tumultuous stock market decline, many financial professionals
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Jan 9A Promising Start to 2023
Predictions can make fools of us all, and while it’s way too early to argue that Blackrock’s declaration of an inevitable recession is wrong..
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Jan 9
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s being called the “Goldilocks” report. Last Friday, we learned that demand for workers in the United States remained strong in 2022.
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Jan 3A Global Outlook
Predictions are interesting to look at, and with the onset of 2023 comes analysts’ best guesses as to how the upcoming year will unfold.
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Jan 3
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s finally over. 2022 was a dismal year for financial markets. Major United States stock indices moved lower, trimming or eliminating the previous year’s gains.
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Dec 26Tesla and Twitter
Tesla is not having a good year…though if we zoom out a bit, the Tesla picture looks much better.
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Dec 26
Weekly Market Commentary
What a year! In some ways, it feels as though we lived through several years in 2022.
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Dec 13The Fed’s Inflation Target
Core inflation, at over 6%, is still too high, and there’s general agreement among economists that the Fed is correct in raising interest rates as it seeks to ...
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Dec 12
Weekly Market Commentary
What comes next? The U.S. stock market tends to be a forward-looking vehicle.
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Dec 5Fed Rate Increase – A Slow Down
The S&P 500 jumped about 3% last Wednesday after Fed Chair Jerome Powell delivered remarks at the Brookings Institution.
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Dec 5
Weekly Market Commentary
What will it take to slow this economy down? In 2001, railway workers slowed a runaway train in Ohio by latching a second engine to the back of the ...
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Nov 28A Somewhat Optimistic View of the 2023 US Economy
Goldman Sachs has issued a relatively upbeat view of the US economy in 2023, arguing that we are more likely than not to avoid a recession in 2023.
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Nov 28
Weekly Market Commentary
There was a shift in the winds of monetary policy. Last week, it became clear the Federal Reserve (Fed) had softened its hawkish stance.
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Nov 21Navigating the Market Downturn
2022 has been a terrible year for investors, as equities have undergone a bear market and bonds have had their worst year in decades.
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Nov 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Thanksgiving and football go together like turkey and stuffing. For some families, though, this year may be more like a turducken, stuffed with American football and the sport ...
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Nov 14Finally, Good Inflation News
Thursday’s inflation report contained the good news that markets and the Fed were hoping for.
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Nov 14
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week was remarkable for many reasons. One reason is that sky watchers around the world had an opportunity to see a total lunar eclipse.
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Nov 7
Weekly Market Commentary
Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous quarter.
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Oct 31
Weekly Market Commentary
Some companies are doing better than others – a lot better. It’s earnings season; the time when companies share how well they performed during the previous ...
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Oct 24Nuclear War is… Unpredictable
Elon Musk recently expressed his concern that the Russian invasion of Ukraine may be leading the world down the path to nuclear war, and his belief that a ...
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Oct 24
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets turned – again. Markets continue to be volatile. Last week, stocks headed north. Nicholas Jasinski of Barron’s reported the change of direction reflected investors’ desire for the ...
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Oct 17
Weekly Market Commentary
We’re not there yet. Investors are understandably eager for the stock market to hit bottom. Some hoped it happened last week, but it did not.
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Oct 10Unemployment and The Fed
Friday’s unemployment report showed an economy that is starting to cool, but only slowly. The unemployment rate dipped to 3.5%, largely due to labor force shrinkage and a ...
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Oct 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Bah humbug! Last week, OPEC+, which includes the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allied oil producers like Russia, chose to cut production by two million barrels ...
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Oct 3Facebook's Faceplant
Though many stocks have struggled this year, few have fallen as far as Meta, Facebook’s parent company:
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Oct 3
Weekly Market Commentary
The third quarter marked a change in attitude. So far, 2022 has been a tough year for investing. We’ve experienced an unusual phenomenon – the simultaneous decline of stock ...
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Sep 30
Quarterly Market Commentary
Third Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Markets again endured an ugly quarter, as equities slid once more into bear territory and bonds continued their historically poor performance.
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Sep 26Winter Is Coming
Inflation isn’t just a United States problem—it also poses an enormous challenge to Europe. The European dilemma is particularly acute because Europe is also facing an ...
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Sep 26
Weekly Market Commentary
Central bank tightening sparked recession fears. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) raised the federal funds rate for the fifth time this year. During 2022, the Fed has lifted ...
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Sep 19Rising Rates Everywhere
The Fed meets again this week, when it is expected to continue its rate hike regime in an effort to combat inflation.
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Sep 19
Weekly Market Commentary
It’s open to interpretation. Jackson Pollock was an action painter. He poured, dropped, and dripped paint onto horizontal canvases.
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Sep 12Jackson Hole – The Dovish Case
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
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Sep 12
Weekly Market Commentary
Central banks are hawkish. Stocks popped higher, anyway. Last week, despite signs that inflation is slowing, U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) officials emphasized their commitment to tightening monetary ...
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