Jackson Hole – The Fed Update
Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s August 26th speech at Jackson Hole made clear the Fed’s intention to bring inflation to heel, even at the cost of significant ...
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Sep 6 -
Sep 6Weekly Market Commentary
You may have heard this one: Don’t fight the Fed. The Fed is the Federal Reserve Bank of the United States.
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Aug 29Market Adaptations
We wrote last week about the extension of a $7,500 credit for new “clean” vehicles, noting the new requirement that such cars be built from minerals sourced or processed ...
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Aug 29
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets were tuned to the signals coming from Jackson Hole, Wyoming. During World War II, United States armed forces often relied on high-powered radio sets to communicate.
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Aug 22Mineral Supply Chains
The Inflation Reduction Act that President Biden signed last week continued a $7,500 credit for various new electric cars, plug-in hybrids, and hydrogen fuel cell cars, but with strings ...
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Aug 22
Weekly Market Commentary
Is this a bear market rally or a new bull market? Investment professionals are in the middle of a heated debate.
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Aug 15Inflation Reduction Act and Electric Cars
President Biden is expected to soon sign the Inflation Reduction Act that Congress passed last week.
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Aug 15
Weekly Market Commentary
Rally caps were waving. In recent weeks, investors have embraced the idea that economic data will persuade the Federal Reserve to slow the pace of rate hikes
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Aug 8Diversified - Emerging Markets
A diversified portfolio typically includes some degree of investment in emerging markets. Schwab’s quarterly chart book has a nice metric showing the relative appeal of foreign investments:
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Aug 8
Weekly Market Commentary
The strength of the United States economy continues to surprise. If you have ever been camping, you may have banked your campfire by covering the hot coals with ...
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Aug 1Are We in a Recession?
The Q2 2022 GDP report came in last week and GDP fell for the quarter, as it did in Q1 2022. Does this mean we’re in a recession? Officially, ...
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Aug 1
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors thought they heard a dovish note from the Federal Reserve and markets rallied. Last week, we learned from the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) that economic growth ...
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Jul 28Economic Signals Are Mixed
The COVID economy has been very unusual. We saw a sharp downturn in GDP and equities and a massive increase in unemployment...
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Jul 28Quarterly Market Commentary
Second Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. When we looked back at the first quarter of 2022, we saw a quarter in which markets struggled, but the downturn could have been much ...
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Jul 25
Weekly Market Commentary
A lot of people are worried that a recession may be in our future. Some think it may already be here. Unemployment is low (3.6 percent), and inflation is ...
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Jul 18
Weekly Market Commentary
Nobody is happy, but Americans are feeling more optimistic. Last week, headlines blasted the new inflation numbers.
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Jul 11
Weekly Market Commentary
Rising inflation is a bit like a child throwing a temper tantrum in the grocery store. The red-faced parent, in this case the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)...
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Jul 5Is a Recession Priced In?
With the S&P 500 in bear market territory and the Fed rapidly raising interest rates, it’s understandable to suggest that equities markets, by virtue of their ...
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Jul 5
Weekly Market Commentary
The first six months of 2022 have earned a place in history books. 2022 is likely to become part of the lore passed from generation to generation.
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Jun 27Inflation History, Revised
Leuthold’s historical analysis of the S&P 500 provides a major note of concern. Bloomberg’s Lu Wang describes these bad-case scenarios outlined by Leuthold that show ...
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Jun 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, bad news was good news. Consumers were feeling blue in June, according to the University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey.
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Jun 20How Low Can We Go?
2022 has not been a good year for markets. This past week we finally entered bear market territory, as the S&P 500’s losses eclipsed the 20% mark.
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Jun 20
Weekly Market Commentary
The fight against inflation intensified. Last week, the Federal Reserve (Fed) delivered a message that it is serious about fighting inflation.
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Jun 13Inflation’s Continued Onslaught
The personal income and outlays report issued by the Commerce Department at the end of May, as well as the recent strong jobs market report...
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Jun 13
Weekly Market Commentary
Inflation is proving to be far more tenacious than markets had hoped. The idea that inflation peaked in March was put to rest last week when the Consumer ...
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Jun 6Has Inflation Finally Peaked?
The consumer price index report comes out Friday, and may provide a degree of clarity about the current path of inflation. One hopeful hint was found in the ...
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Jun 6Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets How strong is the United States economy? That's the question investors were mulling after last week's jobs report. More jobs were created in May ...
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May 31
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets Investors reassessed and markets bounced. Last week, major U.S. stock indices moved higher for the first time in weeks. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 6.2 ...
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May 30More on Recession Risk
Consumers and investors have been understandably grumpy this year. Inflation is high and markets, even including last week's rally, have fallen sharply in 2022. Nonetheless, as Lord Abbett'...
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May 24UK and US Share Challenges
While the S&P 500 is currently flirting with bear market territory, as it nears a 20% drop from its peak, the Fed is currently trying to engineer a ...
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May 23Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets On the fear and greed cycle… One of the most challenging times for investors is a market downturn. Whether markets are experiencing a correction or ...
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May 16Protection From The Fed “Put” May Be History
Back when Alan Greenspan was Fed Chair, from 1987-2006, he became known for the “Greenspan put”, by which the Fed would often respond to falling stock prices
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May 16Weekly Market Commentary
Living with a bear. On the survival series “Alone,” the tension ratchets higher whenever participants encounter bears.
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May 9
Weekly Market Commentary
The Markets There is a lot of uncertainty in financial markets – and markets hate uncertainty. In recent weeks, economic and financial market data have been telling different ...
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May 9Fed Update
Fed Update5/9/22 The Fed continued its rate hike regime with a 50bp increase last Wednesday. While Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated that future 75bp increases were unlikely, he ...
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May 4
Quarterly Market Commentary
First Quarter 2022 Key Takeaways. Inflation, war, and COVID. Perhaps the world could have returned to pre‐COVID days if it faced only one of these challenges, but we ...
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May 2US Recession... Or Not?
US Recession… Or Not?5/2/22 Is a Recession Coming? Interest rates are rising and the unemployment rate can’t get much lower. Given these circumstances, it does seem plausible ...
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May 2Weekly Market Commentary
Weekly Market Commentary May 2, 2022 The MarketsCorrection and contraction.... Investing during 2022 has been like running a forest trail and having unexpected obstacles appear every so often – a fallen tree, ...
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Apr 25Russia and Clean Energy
Global crises can have unintended consequences. One potential outcome of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is the acceleration of clean energy production
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Apr 25Weekly Market Commentary
The Federal Reserve’s Ice Bucket Challenge…Remember a few years ago when people raised money for charity by challenging others to pour buckets of icy water over ...
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Apr 18Commodities and the Economy
We’ve seen a sharp rise in the prices of many commodities over the past two years. Two examples of this are metals prices and oil prices.
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Apr 18
Weekly Market Commentary
Here’s a riddle: How can inflation be 8.5 percent and 6.5 percent at the same time? The answer is that it depends on how you measure it.
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Apr 11Synthetic Fermentation
There’s been enough grim news this year—high inflation, the Russian invasion of Ukraine, and the S&P’s 2022 slide come to mind immediately
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Apr 11
Weekly Market Commentary
The first quarter of 2022 was jam-packed with volatility-inducing events: rising inflation, war in Ukraine, rising interest rates, sanctions on Russia, and a new COVID-19 outbreak in China.
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Apr 4Interconnectedness
The Russian invasion of Ukraine has spurred debate in Europe about reducing its reliance on Russian natural gas.
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Apr 4
Weekly Market Commentary
Checking in on the Federal Reserve. Among other things, Congress asks the Federal Reserve to use its tools to promote price stability and maximum employment.
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Mar 28Possible Pathways
The Fed raised rates 0.25% this month; it is likely the first of several rate hikes this year.
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Mar 28
Weekly Market Commentary
Be careful what you ask for, you just might get it. In early March, almost two-thirds of Americans who participated in a Nationwide Retirement Institute survey said the ...
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Mar 21Inflation Expectations
The main rationale for optimism about the future path of inflation is that longer-term inflation expectations are still anchored reasonably close to the Fed’s 2% target.
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Mar 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Markets were reassured by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)’s actions last week. The FOMC met on March 16 and did exactly what most people expected them to ...
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Mar 14Update on the Inflation Picture
Inflation in February climbed to 7.9%, and core inflation rose to 6.4%; each of these numbers represent the highest mark since 1982.
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Mar 14
Weekly Market Commentary
Investor optimism is quite low. In just two weeks, the war in Ukraine has changed the status of 1.3 million people – approximately the number of people who live in ...
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Mar 7Oil = Nickel
While many long-term ramifications of the Russian invasion of Ukraine are murky, one clear short-term consequence has been a sharp increase in oil prices.
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Mar 7Weekly Market Commentary
The world is adapting to a changing reality. As the war in Ukraine intensified last week, financial markets grappled with uncertainty.
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Feb 28Russia – Ukraine and the Markets
How will the Russian invasion of Ukraine affect markets? While there have been large impacts so far on Russian markets and on the value of the ruble.
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Feb 28
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, Russia invaded Ukraine. Russian President Vladimir Putin’s decision ignited the biggest military conflict in Europe since World War II.
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Feb 22Emerging Markets - Taking the Lead
The MSCI Emerging Markets (EM) Index fell 2.5% in US denominated returns in 2021.
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Feb 21
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors’ appetite for risk diminished as the Russian threat to Ukraine intensified.
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Feb 14Current Inflation Expectations
7% inflation is bad, but the even more critical issue is whether this high rate of inflation is likely to dissipate or to stay with us for a long ...
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Feb 14
Weekly Market Commentary
Why did stock markets in the United States finish the week lower?
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Feb 7What Happened to Facebook’s Meta?
Facebook parent Meta released a weak earnings report last week. How weak was it?
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Feb 7
Weekly Market Commentary
A rosy view through the rearview mirror. To say that economists did not have great expectations for the January employment report might be understating their position.
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Jan 31How Did Forecasters Miss Inflation?
In twenty years economists may sagely nod with the wisdom of hindsight and argue how 7% inflation and 5% core inflation in 2021 were inevitable given constrained supply and stimulated demand.
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Jan 31
Weekly Market Commentary
Last week, the January stock market decline was interrupted by a Friday afternoon rally.
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Jan 24The Economy in Charts
If a picture is worth a thousand words, then charts may provide a better view of the economy than pages of verbiage.
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Jan 24
Weekly Market Commentary
When is a barometer not a barometer? It’s widely recognized that people do not make perfect financial decisions.
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Jan 21
Quarterly Market Commentary
Fourth Quarter 2021 Key Takeaways. If the market resurgence paused in the 3rd quarter of 2021, it then rebounded in the 4th quarter, at least for the headline‐grabbing domestic ...
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Jan 17Car Trouble
When Jerome Powell described last year’s inflation surge as largely transitory in nature, we all had the hopes that that would mean that pandemic-related supply and demand...
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Jan 17
Weekly Market Commentary
Is the economy doing well, or not? If you skimmed the headlines last week, you may have seen that retail sales – the purchases we make from stores in-person ...
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Jan 10Surveying the Market
What do fund managers expect for 2022? Bloomberg’s John Authers discusses a set of survey results on economic expectations for the upcoming year.
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Jan 10
Weekly Market Commentary
Here’s a little story about a group called the Fed… In the 1950’s, then Fed Chair William McChesney Martin described the Federal Reserve...
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Jan 3The Value of Vehicles
We’ve all witnessed the explosive growth of Tesla stock, which has reached a market capitalization of over $1 trillion.
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Jan 3
Weekly Market Commentary
2021 was a fizzing mints-in-soda kind of year. Everything seemed to shoot higher – from COVID-19 cases and vaccinations to economic growth and global stock markets.
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Dec 27Impossible to See, the Future Is
Who spoke the words of wisdom above? We’ll get to that in a minute. But as 2021 gives way to 2022, we want to take a moment to look ...
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Dec 27
Weekly Market Commentary
Investors were feeling bullish. Last week, the Standard & Poor’s 500 (S&P 500) Index closed at a record high for the 68th time this year.
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Dec 20The Fed Take On Inflation
On Wednesday, the Fed held its December meeting and adopted a significantly more aggressive posture to combating the inflation surge of 2021.
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Dec 20
Weekly Market Commentary
Stock and bond markets diverged. Last week, the Bank of England surprised markets with a rate hike, its first in three years, and the Bank of Mexico raised ...
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Dec 13Global Markets Taking Omicron in Stride
The omicron variant, first detected in South Africa in late November and spreading rapidly, appeared to threaten the current equities bull run as markets began to swoon after ...
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Dec 13
Weekly Market Commentary
Inflation met expectations. When the Bureau of Labor Statistics released the Consumer Price Index (CPI) last week, it showed that inflation was at levels last seen in 1982.
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Dec 6EM and ESG
As emerging economies grow, their markets may increasingly resemble those of developed markets.
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