November Links

Here are some of the writings that caught our attention this month (and Happy Thanksgiving to everyone):

A fall in turkey prices means that a typical Thanksgiving meal will be 5% lower this year as compared to last year, according to the American Farm Bureau Federation. However, prices are up 19% over the past 5 years

Felix von Moltke and Torsten Sløk argue that the growth of passive investing has contributed to increased asset-price volatility and decreased liquidity, and possibly increased concentration as well

Noah Smith suggests targeted tariffs are better than broad tariffs, though if the goal is to reduce the US trade deficit, the dollar likely needs to weaken significantly

Haleluya Hadero reviews the development of returnless refunds—situations in which the shipping and processing costs of some returned items is high enough that it’s better for a company (say, Amazon) to refund customer money without requiring that the purchased item be shipped back.

Barry Ritholtz, via Apollo, cites the above chart showing that market predictions on what the Fed will do have regularly been wrong

Noah Smith argues, via the chart below, that consumer sentiment numbers are heavily influenced by partisanship—note the large post-election shifts

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.