Election Mood

We’re already seeing a wide range of theories from pundits and politicians pontificating on why Donald Trump won the Presidential election and what Democrats could have done better. But John Burn-Murdoch of the Financial Times assesses the election in the context of global events, and offers this convincing chart detailing the anti-incumbency mood of 2024:

From the US to the UK, from France to Japan to India, incumbent parties across the world got crushed. For the first time in over a century, all 10 incumbent parties from major countries that held elections in 2024 saw their vote share fall.

Burn-Murdoch’s common theme is inflation, which spiked across the world post-COVID supply chain disruptions and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, enraging voters who, whether fairly or not, punished the party in power at the time. While Democrats may have fared better had Biden dropped out earlier, or had the party adopted less socially progressive positions, they were always facing an uphill battle, and in fact fared relatively well compared to other ruling parties who suffered even greater losses. Soul-searching may still be valuable, but more in terms of future elections rather than diagnosing flaws in the last one.

Burn-Murdoch’s chart is also notable in that incumbent parties performed reasonably well in elections from 1950-1990, but over the past 35 years voters appear to be disgruntled most of the time. Let’s not forget Biden was the first presidential candidate to beat an incumbent in more than 25 years.  While the anti-incumbency mood will likely ease a bit - it’s hard to get much worse - backlash and turmoil are more likely to characterize the future than a contented electorate.

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.