Election Forecasts

We’re about a month away from the Presidential election, and current expectations are for a very close race. Whether you look at prediction markets or election models, both Donald Trump and Kamala Harris have win probabilities near the 50% mark. As of this writing, the prediction site Predictit has Kamala Harris in a marginally better position, while Polymarket shows a pure tossup:

Forecasters also currently project a very tight race that could go either way. Nate Silver’s substack, Silver Bulletin, gives Kamala Harris a 57% chance of winning the electoral college. The website Split Ticket also shows Harris with a 57% chance of winning the electoral college, while 538 has Harris at 56% to win. While it’s fair to say that Harris is probably in a slightly better position than Trump, the election is still in coin flip territory. 538 also gives Harris a 71% chance of winning the popular vote, which means there’s about a 15% chance of a repeat of 2016, in which Trump loses the popular vote but wins the presidency.

Still, while forecasts call for an extremely close race, the polls that forecasts rely on have historically only been roughly accurate. Harry Enten observes that the average polling error in presidential elections since 1948 has been 3%. What would such an error mean for 2024? 538 has a current summary of their swing state projections:

If the polls underestimate Donald Trump by 3%, then he will sweep the swing states and win over 300 electoral votes. If the polls underestimate Kamala Harris by 3%, then she will sweep the swing states and win over 300 electoral votes. A significant polling error in one direction would turn a nailbiter of an election into a relatively comfortable victory for the winner.

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This material is not intended as an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any financial instrument or investment strategy. This material has been prepared for informational purposes only, and is not intended to be or interpreted as a recommendation. Any forecasts contained herein are for illustrative purposes only and are not to be relied upon as advice.